HR: 08:28h
AN: A51F-03 [Abstracts]
TI: Are recent European summer climate trends and extremes consistent with future regional climate
projections?
AU: * Pal, J S
EM: jpal@alum.mit.edu
AF: Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Strada Costiera 11, Trieste, TS 34100
Italy
AU: * Pal, J S
EM: jpal@alum.mit.edu
AF: Purdue University
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2051
United States
AU: Giorgi, F
EM: giorgi@ictp.trieste.it
AF: Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Strada Costiera 11, Trieste, TS 34100
Italy
AU: Bi, X
EM: bixq@ictp.trieste.it
AF: Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Strada Costiera 11, Trieste, TS 34100
Italy
AB:
Summer climate over Europe in recent decades has been characterized by a drying trend and by the occurrence of especially
devastating drought and flood events, such as in the summers of 2002 and 2003. We compare these trends with results from
regional climate model simulations of future climate over Europe under increased greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG). We find
that the projected changes in mean summer precipitation, surface temperature, and large-scale circulations are remarkably
consistent with the observed changes in recent decades. Although we cannot directly attribute the observed changes to an
anthropogenic GHG forcing, this result suggests that the observed drying trend over most of Europe might continue in the
future. Our experiments additionally indicate substantial changes in the intensity and persistence of summer drought and
flood. We identify the Central Mediterranean and Central/Western Europe to be especially vulnerable to increases in both
summer drought and flood, suggesting that the frequency of devastating events such as those experienced in recent summers
might also increase.
DE: 3354 Precipitation (1854)
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 1812 Drought
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting