HR: 08:40h
AN: A51F-04 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Using Regional Models to Assess the Potential for Extreme Climate Change
AU: * Lynn, B H
EM: bhl7@columbia.edu
AF: Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, Armstrong Hall, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 United States
AU: Rosenzweig, C
EM: crosenzweig@giss.nasa.gov
AF: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Armstrong Hall, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 United States
AB: Scientists using regional mesoscale models have made exciting progress in the study of possible climate change and its impacts on human society. These models use the circulation pattern from General Circulation Models (GCMs) as background (lateral boundary) conditions to simulate climate change at the regional and local (or city) scale. Results from the mesoscale model can then be used in, for example, health impact studies, and/or for planning future water and energy use requirements. We present results from an observational and modeling study. The observational study is used to identify changes in the ocean-atmospheric system that affects summertime temperature anomalies over the eastern United States. These include changes in sea surface temperature, surface pressure over the southeastern U.S, as well as the frequency and timing of precipitation. Certain configurations of the "MM5" mesoscale model nested in the "GISS-GCM" reproduced facets of the observed climate-system better than others. We simulated future climate change in the 2050s and 2080s. In some years, the nested mesoscale model simulated temperature anomalies much larger than the GISS-GCM. The modeled characteristics of the ocean-atmospheric system have analogs in the observational data, suggesting that extreme climate change should be considered as one possible outcome of greenhouse forcing on the earth-climate system.
DE: 3329 Mesoscale meteorology
DE: 3354 Precipitation (1854)
DE: 3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting