HR: 10:24h
AN: A52A-01    [Abstracts]
TI: Modeling the Impact of Regional Climate Change on Ozone Air Quality Over the Eastern United States
AU: * Hogrefe, C
EM: chogrefe@dec.state.ny.us
AF: Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York at Albany, 251 Fuller Road, Albany, NY 12203 United States
AU: Lynn, B
EM: israelzvilynn@yahoo.com
AF: Columbia University, 60 Haven Ave, New York, NY 10032 United States
AU: Goldberg, R
EM: ccrag@giss.nasa.gov
AF: NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 United States
AU: Rosenzweig, C
EM: crosenzweig@giss.nasa.gov
AF: NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 United States
AU: Civerolo, K
EM: kxcivero@gw.dec.state.ny.us
AF: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, BAQAR 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233 United States
AU: Ku, J
EM: mku@dec.state.ny.us
AF: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, BAQAR 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233 United States
AU: Kinney, P L
EM: plk3@columbia.edu
AF: Columbia University, 60 Haven Ave, New York, NY 10032 United States
AB: Regional climate change has the potential to influence the concentration and distribution of air pollutants such as ozone through a variety of direct and indirect processes, including the modification of biogenic emissions, the change of chemical reaction rates, changes in mixed-layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and modifications of synoptic flow patterns that govern pollutant transport. We present results of a modeling study aimed at simulating such effects of regional climate change on ozone air quality over the northeastern United States. The modeling system used for this study consists of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model; the PennState/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE); and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for simulating air quality. Simulations were performed for five summer seasons each during the 1990s and the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Different MM5 model configurations and different greenhouse gas scenarios were used to test the sensitivity of the air quality predictions towards these parameters. Analysis of future-year simulations shows an increase in mean and extreme ozone concentrations as a result of regional climate change under all scenarios, with increases in average summertime daily maximum ozone concentrations ranging from two to eight ppb. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of ozone increases are sensitive to model configurations in the MM5 regional climate model and the greenhouse gas scenarios. To investigate this dependency, we present a detailed analysis of the relationship between variability and changes in ozone concentrations and those in meteorological variables such as temperature, wind speed, and boundary layer height. Finally, it is shown through a series of sensitivity studies that changes in chemical boundary conditions contribute less to increases in extreme ozone concentrations than changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions and especially changes in regional climate for the 2050s under the IPCC/SRES A2 greenhouse gas scenario.
DE: 1630 Impact phenomena
DE: 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions
DE: 0345 Pollution--urban and regional (0305)
DE: 0365 Troposphere--composition and chemistry
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting