HR: 11:20h
AN: A52A-05    [Abstracts]
TI: A Reduced Form Model for Assessing Future Climate and Air Quality
AU: * Holloway, T
EM: taholloway@wisc.edu
AF: University of Wisconsin--Madison, SAGE 1710 University Ave., Madison, WI 53726 United States
AU: Spak, S
EM: taholloway@wisc.edu
AF: University of Wisconsin--Madison, SAGE 1710 University Ave., Madison, WI 53726 United States
AB: We present an easily transferable, low-cost tool for assessing first-order interactions between climate, air quality, and health. This work complements the framework of the Columbia-University-based New York Climate and Health Project (NYCHP), in which linked, dynamical models simulate interactions among climate change, atmospheric chemistry, land use, and public health. While the NYCHP approach serves as a state-of-the-art example for other regional studies of climate and health, it demands extensive computational resources, high levels of expertise, and multi-disciplinary teamwork. The reduced form approach will permit cost-effective analysis of health impacts from climate, while advancing understanding of system uncertainties and the appropriate use of statistical methods. Our reduced form model takes input from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GCM) at 4 x 5 degree resolution [Russell, 1995], parallel to the NYCHP. Past and projected temperatures are downscaled by multiple linear regression on common empirical orthogonal functions, based on the clim.pact downscaling algorithm of Benestad, [2004], parallel to the role of the MM5 dynamical model in the NYCHP. Downscaled temperatures provide input to a series of static box models of ozone photochemistry, e.g. that described in Klonecki [1997], parallel to the role of the CMAQ air quality model in the NYCHP. Because the reduced form structure follows that of the NYCHP, results from two modeling approaches are compared at each step. For example, the statistical and dynamical downscaling approaches exhibit comparable skill and convergence of results, and both techniques consistently produce greater warming than the GCM. References: Benestad, R. E. (2004) The clim.pact Package. http://cran.r-project.org Klonecki, A.A., and H. Levy II. (1997) Tropospheric chemical ozone tendencies in CO-CH4-NOy-H2O systems: Their sensitivity to variations in environmental parameters and their application to a global chemistry transport model study. J. Geophys. Res., 102: D17, 21, 221-21, 237. Russell, G.L., J.R. Miller, and D. Rind. (1995) A coupled atmosphere-ocean model for transient climate change studies. Atmos.-Ocean, 33: 683-730.
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 0345 Pollution--urban and regional (0305)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting