HR: 12:08h
AN: A52A-09    [Abstracts]
TI: Experimental Wildfire Threat Forecast
AU: * Brolley, J M
EM: jbrolley@fsu.edu
AF: Center of Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr. R.M. Johnson Building - Suite 200, Tallahassee, FL 32304 United States
AU: O'Brien, J J
EM: jim.obrien@coaps.fsu.edu
AF: Center of Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr. R.M. Johnson Building - Suite 200, Tallahassee, FL 32304 United States
AU: Zierden, D
EM: zierden@coaps.fsu.edu
AF: Center of Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr. R.M. Johnson Building - Suite 200, Tallahassee, FL 32304 United States
AB: Climate shifts due to El Nino (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and La Nina (cooler than normal) are used to predict seasonal temperature and precipitation trends up to 12 months. These climate shifts are strong in the Southeast United States. El Nino brings plentiful rainfall and lower temperatures to Florida, and La Nina is associated with warm and dry winter and spring. Given that temperature and rainfall affects wildfire activity, it follows that the interannual drivers of climate influences wildfire. Studies have shown a strong connection between wildfire activity in Florida and La Nina, with the average number of acres burned more than doubling (Brenner, 1991; Jones, Shriver, and O'Brien, 1999). While this relationship is important and lends a degree of predictability to the activity of future wildfire seasons, human activities such as effective suppression and prescribed burns can play an important role. For this reason, we are forecasting wildfire POTENTIAL rather than burn statistics. This wildfire threat potential uses the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). The KBDI is well-suited as a seasonal forecast medium because daily temperature and rainfall responding to changing climate and weather conditions influences KBDI. This index is high during dry warm weather patterns and low during wet cool patterns. The KBDI is widely used in forestry in the Southeast since its development with foresters and firefighters having familiarity with the KBDI and its applications. The Southeast Climate Consortium will also be issuing wildfire risk forecast for Florida and parts of Alabama and Georgia based on ENSO phase and KBDI. Climate information and ENSO predictions are better served by incorporating them with known climate indices that are used in the forestry sector. The KBDI reflects these seasonal shifts. The U.S. Forest Service and state agencies operationally use the KBDI to monitor and predict wildfires, and meteorologists at the Florida Division of Forestry have demonstrated the validity of the KBDI as an indicator of potential wildfire activity. They showed that the deviation from the seasonal norm is more important than absolute KBDI. The wildfire risk forecast will present the probabilities associated with KBDI anomalies.
DE: 4215 Climate and interannual variability (3309)
DE: 4522 El Ni¤o
DE: 1812 Drought
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting