HR: 1340h
AN: A53B-0873 [Abstracts]
TI: The Warming of Lake Tahoe
AU: * Coats, R N
EM: coats@hydroikos.com
AF: Hydroikos Associates, 2175 E. Francisco Blvd., San Rafael, CA 94901
United States
AU: Perez-Losada, J
EM: jplosada@ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
United States
AU: Schladow, G
EM: gschladow@ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
United States
AU: Richards, R
EM: brichards@ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Environmental Science & Policy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
United States
AU: Goldman, C
EM: crgoldman@ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Environmental Science & Policy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
United States
AB:
We investigated the effects of climate variability on the thermal structure of Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, 1970-2002, and
with principal components analysis and step-wise multiple regression, related the volume-weighted average lake temperature
to trends in climate. We then used a 1-dimensional hydrodynamic model to show that the observed trends in the climatic
forcing variables can reasonably explain the observed changes in the lake. Trends in the climatic drivers include 1) upward
trends in maximum and minimum daily air temperature at Tahoe City; and 2) a slight upward trend in downward long-wave
radiation. Changes in the thermal structure of the lake include 1) a long-term warming trend, with the highest rates near the
surface and at 400 m, and discernible in the average lake temperature and total heat content of the lake; 2) an increase in
the resistance of the lake to mixing and stratification, as measured by the Schmidt Stability and Birge Work; 3) a trend
toward decreasing depth of the October thermocline.
We found that the upward trend in average lake temperature (0.016 $^{o}$C yr$^{-1}$) is caused by increasing daily air
temperature and downward long-wave radiation. At daily to yearly time scales, lake temperature is also correlated with the
indices of El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The net average heat flux to
the lake between 1970 and 2002 was 0.71 W m$^{-2}$, 10.4 times the reported geothermal flux. The long-term changes in the
thermal structure of Lake Tahoe may interact with and exacerbate the well-documented trends in the lake's clarity and primary
productivity.
DE: 4215 Climate and interannual variability (3309)
DE: 4239 Limnology
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 1803 Anthropogenic effects
DE: 1845 Limnology
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting