HR: 1340h
AN: A53B-0888    [Abstracts]
TI: Downscaling Spatial and Temporal Variation in Precipitation For Western North America under Forecast Climate Change
AU: * McKechnie, N
EM: nicole.mckechnie@uleth.ca
AF: University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive West, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4 Canada
AU: Byrne, J
EM: byrne@uleth.ca
AF: University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive West, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4 Canada
AU: Townshend, I
EM: towni0@uleth.ca
AF: University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive West, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4 Canada
AU: Rabe, N
EM: nicole.rabe@uleth.ca
AF: University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive West, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4 Canada
AU: Kienzle, S
EM: stefan.keinzle@uleth.ca
AF: University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive West, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4 Canada
AU: Shepherd, A
EM: anita.shepherd@uleth.ca
AF: University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive West, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4 Canada
AB: Potential changes in monthly precipitation for 372 climate stations in Western North America were derived using synoptic downscaling from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis second generation coupled global circulation model (CGCM2). Daily 500 mb geopotential heights from the CGCM2 were used to represent future (2020-2050) synoptics while daily historical (1960-1990) 500 mb geopotential heights were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis project. Historical and future synoptic conditions were classified according to Changnon et al. (1993. Monthly Weather Review 121: 633-647). The historical pattern frequencies were linked to historical precipitation for selected weather stations across western North America to determine the relationship between synoptic patterns and spatial precipitation. Future synoptic patterns were used to forecast future precipitation; and GIS tools were applied to develop and display regional variations in future precipitation patterns for western North America.
DE: 3354 Precipitation (1854)
DE: 3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology
DE: 1655 Water cycles (1836)
DE: 1803 Anthropogenic effects
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE (New category)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting