Birds, Plants, and Climate: Impacts of Climatic Change on the Phenology of Spring Bird Migration in the Great Lakes, USA

HR: 0800h
AN: B41A-0092 [Abstracts]
TI: Birds, Plants, and Climate: Impacts of Climatic Change on the Phenology of Spring Bird Migration in the Great Lakes, USA
AU: * MacMynowski, D P
EM: macmynowski@stanford.edu
AF: Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Stanford University, Encina Hall, E501 Stanford Institute for International Studies, Stanford, CA 94305-6055 United States
AU: Root, T L
EM: troot@stanford.edu
AF: Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Stanford University, Encina Hall, E501 Stanford Institute for International Studies, Stanford, CA 94305-6055 United States
AB: Global climate change is likely to emerge as a significant, if not dominant force, in ecosystem change over the next several decades. While the potential impacts of discordant range shifts have received considerable attention, asynchronies in phenology have received less attention. Migrating birds are of particular concern given their need of multiple habitats, which often involve large spatial scales. Time is of the essence for migrating birds: it is critical for departures with favorable weather conditions, intersecting adequate resources to fuel further flight, and for spring migrants, arrival on the breeding grounds in concert with the flush of food to feed offspring. We assess changes in the spring phenology of migrant birds in the Great Lakes region using observations in Germfask, MI, USA ($49\deg$17'N, $85\deg$57'W) from 1965-1994 and Fairfield Township, WI,USA ($43\deg$30'N, $89\deg$30'W) from 1976-1999. We correlate the species temporal changes with abiotic and biotic variables to understand how migrants' behaviour is associated with spring green-up (plant phenology) and multi-scalar climate/weather variables, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, and local and regional temperature. We assess the observed changes and correlations in light of migrant life history factors (wintering grounds, diet, residency) to understand which species, or groups of species, are particularly at risk from climatic-change-induced disruptions to the migratory and breeding schedule. The implications of potential ecosystem asynchronies between climate/weather, migratory schedules, and the arrival of spring are discussed.
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
DE: 1630 Impact phenomena
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting