HR: 15:25h
AN: B43D-08    [Abstracts]
TI: Hydroclimate Scenarios of Amazon Deforestation
AU: * Avissar, R
EM: avissar@duke.edu
AF: Duke University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 123 Hudson Hall, Durham, NC 27708 United States
AU: Ramos da Silva, R
EM: renato@duke.edu
AF: Duke University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 123 Hudson Hall, Durham, NC 27708 United States
AU: Werth, D
EM: werth@duke.edu
AF: Duke University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 123 Hudson Hall, Durham, NC 27708 United States
AB: The regional and global implications of the replacement of natural forest by degraded vegetation in the Amazon on the regional and global hydroclimate have yet to be fully understood and quantified. In this study, regional and global climate models are used in conjunction with scenarios of land-cover change resulting from socio-economic and ecological analyses for the coming decades, to estimate potential hydroclimate changes in and outside of the Amazon basin. Four ensembles of six realizations, twelve years each, are produced with the NASA-GISS GCM II: (1) a "control" ensemble that simulates the land cover in the Amazon basin before massive deforestation started; (2) a "current land cover" ensemble; (3) a "scenario for 2030" ensemble; and (4) a "scenario for 2050" ensemble. In addition, The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is used at a high resolution (20 km grid size) over the Amazon Basin and using the same four land-cover scenarios but with the NCEP reanalysis for three different years (wet, dry, and typical) forcing its lateral boundaries. The combination of these different simulations reveals significant impact of deforestation on the regional and global hydroclimate.
DE: 1655 Water cycles (1836)
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1854 Precipitation (3354)
DE: 1878 Water/energy interactions
DE: 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting