HR: 17:00h
AN: B44A-04    [Abstracts]
TI: Regional Climate Change Influences Frequency of Frost Damage via Changes in Phenology: Effects of the North Pacific Oscillation (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) on Rocky Mountain Wildflowers
AU: * Inouye, D W
EM: inouye@umd.edu
AF: University of Maryland, Dept. of Biology, College Park, MD 20742-4415 United States
AU: * Inouye, D W
EM: inouye@umd.edu
AF: Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, PO Box 519, Crested Butte, CO 81224 United States
AB: There is a significant correlation (P = .049) between the state of the North Pacific Oscillation (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the amount of winter snowfall at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (2,800m in the Colorado Rocky Mountains). The 1998 change of this inter-decadal mode of variability of the north Pacific atmosphere system to a dry phase has resulted in decreased snowpack, reversing a trend for increasing snowfall since the previous phase change in 1976. The seasonal timing (phenology) of plant growth and flowering at high altitudes is determined almost entirely by the timing of spring snowmelt, even for species that flower at the end of the season, and the decreased snowpack since 1998 combined with warming air temperatures has resulted in significantly earlier initiation of the growing season and subsequent flowering. Flowering in 2002, for example, was the earliest recorded during my 31-year study, and probably the earliest since at least 1935. Frost (with temperatures as low as -6 or -7§C) is still likely to occur as late as mid-June, however, and a consequence of the earlier beginning of the growing season is that many species have developed sensitive flower buds or other tissues by mid-June that are likely to be killed by frost. From 1994-1998 the average percentage of flower buds of Helianthella quinquenervis (Asteraceae; aspen sunflower) killed by frost was 26 percent(range 0-81), but since the 1998 NPO phase change a mean of 75 percent of flower buds have been killed (range 0-100; over 90 percent for each of the past four years). The loss of flowers from these frosts has consequences for plant demography (fewer seeds results in fewer seedlings), pollinators (which have fewer floral resources), seed predators (e.g., tephritid flies), and parasitoids (e.g., wasps, which have fewer seed predators to parasitize). A suite of wildflower species whose flowering abundance is positively correlated with the amount of winter snowfall has also produced fewer flowers since 1998, potentially exacerbating the effects of frost. Thus this regional climate event appears to be having ecosystem-wide consequences in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Given the 50-75 year cycle length of the NPO, this area may be at the beginning of a decades-long change in snowfall that will reinforce the effects of global climate warming and result in significant ecosystem responses.
DE: 1699 General or miscellaneous
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
DE: 0400 Biogeosciences
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting