HR: 17:15h
AN: B54A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Simulating Disturbance Impacts With the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS)
AU: * Kurz, W A
EM: wkurz@nrcan.gc.ca
AF: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, 506 West Burnside Rd, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5 Canada
AU: Rampley, G
EM: grampley@nrcan.gc.ca
AF: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, 506 West Burnside Rd, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5 Canada
AU: Stinson, G
EM: gstinson@nrcan.gc.ca
AF: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, 506 West Burnside Rd, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5 Canada
AU: Dymond, C
EM: cdymond@nrcan.gc.ca
AF: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, 506 West Burnside Rd, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5 Canada
AU: Apps, M
EM: mapps@nrcan.gc.ca
AF: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, 506 West Burnside Rd, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5 Canada
AB: The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS) is a forest carbon (C) accounting system that estimates C stocks and stock changes in biomass and dead organic matter pools. The model operates at four spatial scales from stand-level to national. Recent advances have improved the generalized framework for the simulation of disturbances such as fires, forest insects, and management activities by expanding the disturbance impact types that can now be represented. The new approach accommodates all types of impacts from growth reduction to partial mortality to stand replacement, and these can span single- to multi-year periods. The amount of disturbance can be defined by area, proportion of eligible area, or C removed. Their impacts are modeled as the immediate effect on C stocks (disturbance matrices define the transfer, release and export of C) and on growth dynamics. The model simulates the post-disturbance growth trajectory and dead organic matter dynamics of the stand. Disturbance data obtained from monitoring programs are combined with inventory and growth and yield data to estimate past C stock changes. Projections of future natural disturbances, based on probability distribution functions, can be used to estimate the distribution of future C stock changes. Example simulations demonstrate the approach for different disturbance types and regions.
UR: http://carbon.nrcan.gc.ca
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 1615 Biogeochemical processes (4805)
DE: 0322 Constituent sources and sinks
DE: 0400 Biogeosciences
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting