HR: 0800h
AN: C21A-0965    [Abstracts]
TI: Improved 30-day Great Lakes ice forecasts during IPY
AU: * Drobot, S D
EM: sdrobot@nas.edu
AB: The potential benefits for skillful 30-day forecasts of Great Lakes ice cover are clearly significant, given that over 1.4 billion metric tons (with an estimated value of 200 billion) have been transported along the Great Lakes since 1959. The U.S. Navy/NOAA National Ice Center (NIC) is responsible for issuing 30-day forecasts of ice conditions on the Great Lakes. The NIC product currently utilizes estimates of freezing degree days (FDDs; a temperature proxy), analyst knowledge, some teleconnection data (NAO and ENSO), and analogues of previous years to issue a 30-day forecast. This presentation outlines current efforts to create a fully automated 30-day forecast for the Great Lakes, including uncertainty information, and the plans for rolling out the product during the IPY.
DE: 9350 North America
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 3337 Numerical modeling and data assimilation
DE: 1863 Snow and ice (1827)
SC: Cryosphere [C]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting