HR: 09:30h
AN: C51C-07 [Abstracts]
TI: A Mechanism for the High Rate of Sea-Ice Thinning in the
Arctic Ocean
AU: * Bitz, C M
EM: bitz@apl.washington.edu
AF: University of Washington
Polar Science Center, Box 355640, Seattle, WA 98195
United States
AU: Roe, G H
EM: gerard@ess.washington.edu
AF: University of Washington
Earth Space Sciences, Box 351310, Seattle, WA 98195-1310
United States
AB:
Submarine measurements of sea ice draft show that the ice has thinned
in some parts of the Arctic Ocean at a remarkably high rate over the
past few decades. The spatial pattern indicates that the thinning was
a strong function of ice thickness, with the greatest thinning
occurring where the ice was thickest initially. A similar
relationship between sea ice thinning and the initial thickness is
reproduced individually by three global climate models in response to
increased levels of carbon dioxide in the models' atmosphere. All
three models have weak trends in their surface winds and one model
lacks ice dynamics altogether, implying that trends in the ice
circulation are not necessary to produce a relatively high rate of
thinning over the central Arctic or a thickness change that increases
with the initial thickness.
I will present a general theory to describe the thinning of sea ice
subject to climate perturbations. Results from numerical models and
theory alike indicate that the leading component of the thickness
dependence of the thinning is likely due to the basic thermodynamics
of sea ice. When perturbed, sea ice returns to its equilibrium
thickness by adjusting its growth rate. The growth--thickness
relationship is stabilizing and hence can be reckoned a negative
feedback. The feedback is stronger for thinner ice, so thinner ice
recovers more quickly from perturbations than thicker ice. I will
discuss the implications of this feedback for recent observed changes
in the ice thickness, including the reduced frequency of multiyear and
ridged ice and increased frequency of firstyear ice.
DE: 4540 Ice mechanics and air/sea/ice exchange processes
DE: 1863 Snow and ice (1827)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
SC: Cryosphere [C]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting