HR: 15:10h
AN: C53A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Simulated variability and change in 20th and 21st century Arctic freshwater budgets
AU: * Holland, M M
EM: mholland@ucar.edu
AF: National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 United States
AU: Finnis, J
EM: Joel.Finnis@colorado.edu
AF: CIRES University of Colorado at Boulder, Campus Box 449, Boulder, CO 80309 United States
AU: Barrett, A
AF: CIRES University of Colorado at Boulder, Campus Box 449, Boulder, CO 80309 United States
AU: Serreze, M
AF: CIRES University of Colorado at Boulder, Campus Box 449, Boulder, CO 80309 United States
AB: Variability and change in Arctic ocean freshwater budgets has large potential climate implications, including influences on Arctic sea ice growth and deep water formation in the northern North Atlantic. In this study, variability and change in ensemble 20th century simulations of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 are presented. This includes an analysis of the timeseries of river runoff, precipitation and evaporation, and ice and ocean transports. Comparisons to observations are made where possible. Atmospheric circulation patterns and other factors associated with the freshwater budget variability are assessed to determine the mechanisms driving variability and change over the 20th century simulations. Additionally, information on the simulated natural versus forced changes in the system are discussed. Finally, IPCC scenario runs are examined to identify projected changes in the Arctic freshwater budgets over the next century.
DE: 9315 Arctic region
DE: 1655 Water cycles (1836)
SC: Cryosphere [C]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting