HR: 0800h
AN: GC51D-1086    [Abstracts]
TI: Simulation of the global warming by the one-dimensional simplified earth system model.
AU: * Murakami, K
EM: kazu@system.eps.nagoya-u.ac.jp
AF: Nagoya University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Graduate School of Environmental Studies Nagoya University Furo-cho Chikusa, Nagoya, 464-8601 Japan
AU: Sasai, T
EM: sasai@system.eps.nagoya-u.ac.jp
AF: Nagoya University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Graduate School of Environmental Studies Nagoya University Furo-cho Chikusa, Nagoya, 464-8601 Japan
AU: Ichii, K
EM: kichiijp@yahoo.co.jp
AF: San Jose State University (NASA Ames Research Center), One Washington Square, San Jose, CA 95192 United States
AU: Yamaguchi, Y
EM: yasushi@nagoya-u.jp
AF: Nagoya University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Graduate School of Environmental Studies Nagoya University Furo-cho Chikusa, Nagoya, 464-8601 Japan
AB: Global warming, resulting from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is one of the most significant Earth_fs environmental problems. Since global warming is caused by the coupled feedback cycles of energy and carbon, it is essential to assess the impacts of various feedback processes on CO2 uptake by the land and oceans to project future carbon cycle and climate variations. In order to project future changes in carbon cycle and climate, a simple one-dimensional earth system model the carbon and energy coupled cycle model in the simplified manner have been developed. The model consists of a north-south one-dimensional zonally averaged atmosphere-ocean energy balance model, and a box-type one-dimensional carbon cycle model of atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere (vegetation and soil) and ocean, and their interactive feedback processes. The following feedback processes were included in the model, (1) water vapor feedback, (2) biospheric CO2 fertilization, and temperature dependencies on (3) photosynthesis, (4) soil decomposition, (5) ocean surface chemistry. First we simulated the historical variations in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The model was calibrated to reproduce the past atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature variations. The past carbon cycle and climatic variations are in good agreement with observational data, but ocean carbon uptake was smaller than the observational result because the south middle latitudinal carbon uptake was small. The future change of carbon cycle and climate was simulated up to the year 2100 based on the IPCC IS92a emission scenario. The atmospheric CO2 concentration reaches 610 ppmv in 2100 and global average temperature increases 1.5 K for 2000-2100. The regional difference of warming between the high and low latitudinal zones is 1.5 K for 2000-2100. The sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties originated from CO2 emissions by land use, ice albedo feedback and ocean current velocity change were the primary causes of uncertainties in projecting future CO2 concentrations.
DE: 1223 Ocean/Earth/atmosphere interactions (3339)
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE (New category)
DE: 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting