HR: 0800h
AN: GC51D-1090    [Abstracts]
TI: Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Vegetational Transboundary Propagation Due to Climate Change
AU: Mutulu, P M
EM: pmmutulu@ucalgary.ca
AF: Dept. of Geomatics Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. N.W., Calgary, AB T2N 1N4 Canada
AU: * Blais, J
EM: blais@ucalgary.ca
AF: Dept. of Geomatics Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. N.W., Calgary, AB T2N 1N4 Canada
AU: * Blais, J
EM: blais@ucalgary.ca
AF: Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. N.W., Calgary, AB T2N 1N4 Canada
AU: Muzik, I
EM: imuzik@ucalgary.ca
AF: Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. N.W., Calgary, AB T2N 1N4 Canada
AU: Nkemdirim, L
EM: nkemdiri@ucalgary.ca
AF: Dept. of Geography, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. N.W., Calgary, AB T2N 1N4 Canada
AB: Significant uncertainty is associated with mapping the movement of vegetational zones due climate change. For more accurate mapping of such movements and related impacts on hydrology, a probabilistic approach combined with conceptual hydrologic modeling has been developed. A pattern recognition technique that couples empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), based on Karkhunen-Loeve approach, and a predictor- corrector technique to map vegetational transboundary lines as functions of time and space has been developed. The superiority of the technique lies in its ability to map moisture index isolines, which drive vegetational zones as generated by Monte Carlo simulations. The predictor-corrector method has been incorporated into a monthly water balance model utilizing a Bayesian approach that employs moisture indices derived from remotely sensed imagery and digital elevation information, conditioned by climatic processes. The potential use of this approach in the assessment of streamflow sensitivity to climate change is demonstrated by applications to Western Canadian and Eastern African watersheds. The reliability characteristics of this approach are currently under investigation.
DE: 1699 General or miscellaneous
DE: 1860 Runoff and streamflow
DE: 1640 Remote sensing
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting