HR: 08:05h
AN: H11G-01 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Environmental modeling and the propagation of error
AU: * Franks, S W
EM: stewart.franks@newcastle.edu.au
AF: University of Newcastle, School of Engineering, Callaghan, NSW 2308 Australia
AB: Environmental modelling, by definition, requires the development of models to represent the spatially and temporally complex processes that occur in the natural and modified environment. The complexity of the environment relative to the data available for the development of such models necessitates simplifications and assumptions whether the model be data-based empirical, conceptual or physically-based; lumped or distributed. Whilst much effort has been placed on the development of uncertainty estimation techniques to provide quantification of the errors and unknowns associated with environmental models, often key uncertainties remain to be considered explicitly. In this presentation, the explicit propagation of errors and uncertainties is advocated and demonstrated with a number of case studies. The role and propagation of uncertainty and error associated with rainfall-runoff modelling is first considered. Explicit propagation of errors associated with input forcing data and the choice of model structure in a range of applications is demonstrated. Similar examples of error propagation are then demonstrated with regard to sediment fingerprinting, remote sensing of soil moisture and saturation, and infrastructure degradation. These case studies demonstrate a clear need for error propagation techniques to be employed across the range of environmental modelling techniques.
DE: 1800 HYDROLOGY
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting