HR: 11:10h
AN: H12C-04    [Abstracts]
TI: Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Predictions
AU: Romanowicz, R
EM: r.romanowicz@lancaster.ac.uk
AF: Lancaster University, Environmental Science, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ United Kingdom
AU: * Beven, K
EM: k.beven@lancaster.ac.uk
AF: Lancaster University, Environmental Science, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ United Kingdom
AU: Young, K
EM: p.young@lancaster.ac.uk
AF: Lancaster University, Environmental Science, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ United Kingdom
AB: Accuracy in the prediction of flood inundation for both risk mapping and real time forecasting requires accuracy in the representation of flow dynamics, input upstream and lateral fluxes, channel and flood plain topography, flood plain infrastructure, and all the different forms of energy losses in the flow at flood stages. Most predictive models of flood inundation are limited in their accuracy in all of these requirements so that some uncertainty in respect of the inundation predictions is inevitable. In this presentation an ensemble prediction methodology is presented that allows the evaluation of prediction quantiles for patterns of flood inundation. Model evaluation and weighting is evaluated within an extended GLUE framework.
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1860 Runoff and streamflow
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting