HR: 1340h
AN: H13E-0466    [Abstracts]
TI: 1917-2002 Covariability of Climate and Hydropower Production; Impact on Energy Transfers in the Western U.S.
AU: * Voisin, N
EM: nathalie@hydro.washington.edu
AF: University of Washington - Hydrology group, Wilson Ceramic Laboratory Box 352700 University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700 United States
AU: Hamlet, A
EM: hamleaf@u.washington.edu
AF: University of Washington - Hydrology group, Wilson Ceramic Laboratory Box 352700 University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700 United States
AU: Graham, P
EM: Phil.Graham@smhi.se
AF: University of Washington - Hydrology group, Wilson Ceramic Laboratory Box 352700 University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700 United States
AU: Lettenmaier, D
EM: dennisl@u.washington.edu
AF: University of Washington - Hydrology group, Wilson Ceramic Laboratory Box 352700 University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700 United States
AU: Pierce, D
EM: dpierce@ucsd.edu
AF: Climate Research Division - Scripps Institution of Oceanography MC 0224, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224 United States
AU: Barnett, T
EM: tbarnett-ul@ucsd.edu
AF: Climate Research Division - Scripps Institution of Oceanography MC 0224, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224 United States
AB: Climate and climate variability have large effects on energy supply and consumption in ways that are becoming predictable. Climate forecasts are now routinely made for lead times from a week or so to as long as a year or more. As yet, however, this capability is not widely used in power management. California's residential electrical consumption has regular peaks in winter and summer, while energy consumption in the Pacific Northwest has a strong winter peak. Seasonal to inter annual climate along the west coast varies in such a way that California and the Pacific Northwest are often out of phase. For instance, warm and dry winters in the Pacific Northwest (and hence reduced hydropower production) often occur at the same time as cool and wet conditions in California. These conditions can now be forecast with some accuracy as much as a year in advance. We have developed models that make use of climate forecasts to simulate both the hydrology and operations of the Columbia River, and the Sacramento-San Joaquin (combined State Water Project and federal Central Valley Project) reservoir systems. These models are driven by gridded daily historical climate data, now complete from 1916 to current. We have used these sequences of historical climate data to address the following questions: 1) If the current system of hydropower reservoirs, and thermal energy plants in both the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and California had existed throughout the period 1916 to present, how frequently would winter and summer power production and demand have been out of phase? 2) What is the potential for use of weather and climate forecasts with lead times from a few weeks out to a year or more for improving joint operation of Pacific Northwest and California energy generation, considering specifically the potential for incorporation of weather and climate forecasts in projection of both supply (hydropower) and energy demand? We expand on a preliminary analysis using the retrospective simulations to examine the potential for alternative operation of the existing power intertie between the Pacific Northwest and California (capacity 8000 MW) that might exploit out of phase climate behavior between the PNW and California.
DE: 4215 Climate and interannual variability (3309)
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1860 Runoff and streamflow
DE: 1884 Water supply
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting