HR: 08:15h
AN: H21H-02    [Abstracts]
TI: Navigating a Path Toward Operational, Short-term, Ensemble Based, Probablistic Streamflow Forecasts
AU: * Hartman, R K
EM: Robert.Hartman@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center, 3310 El Camino Avenue, Suite 226, Sacramento, CA 95821 United States
AU: Schaake, J
EM: John.Schaake@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/NWS Office of Hydrologic Development, OHD12, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910
AB: The National Weather Service (NWS) has federal responsibility for issuing public flood warnings in the United States. Additionally, the NWS has been engaged in longer range water resources forecasts for many years, particularly in the Western U.S. In the past twenty years, longer range forecasts have increasingly incorporated ensemble techniques. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they allow a great deal of flexibility, both temporally and in content. This technique also provides for the influence of additional forcings (i.e. ENSO), through either pre or post processing techniques. More recently, attention has turned to the use of ensemble techniques in the short-term streamflow forecasting process. While considerably more difficult, the development of reliable short-term probabilistic streamflow forecasts has clear application and value for many NWS customers and partners. During flood episodes, expensive mitigation actions are initialed or withheld and critical reservoir management decisions are made in the absence of uncertainty and risk information. Limited emergency services resources and the optimal use of water resources facilities necessitates the development of a risk-based decision making process. The development of reliable short-term probabilistic streamflow forecasts are an essential ingredient in the decision making process. This paper addresses the utility of short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts and the considerations that must be addressed as techniques and operational capabilities are developed. Verification and validation information are discussed from both a scientific and customer perspective. Education and training related to the interpretation and use of ensemble products are also addressed.
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1854 Precipitation (3354)
DE: 1860 Runoff and streamflow
DE: 1869 Stochastic processes
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting