HR: 08:30h
AN: H21H-03 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Uncertainty in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting
AU: * Slater, A G
EM: aslater@cires.colorado.edu
AF: CIRES, University of Colorado, Campus Box 449, Boulder, CO 80309-0449 United States
AU: Clark, M P
EM: clark@vorticity.colorado.edu
AF: CIRES, University of Colorado, Campus Box 449, Boulder, CO 80309-0449 United States
AU: Hay, L E
EM: lhay@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25046, MS 412, DFC, Lakewood,, CO 80225 United States
AU: Gangopadhyay, S
EM: subhrendu.gangopadhyay@colorado.edu
AF: CIRES, University of Colorado, Campus Box 449, Boulder, CO 80309-0449 United States
AB: A common solution to the streamflow forecasting problem is to run a hydrologic (or land-surface) model up to the start of the forecast period to estimate basin initial conditions, and then run the model into the future, with an ensemble of forecast inputs, to produce an ensemble of forecasted streamflow. The River Forecast Centers in the United States have used this Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method for many years. The skill of the ESP approach depends on : (1) the hydrologic/land-surface model (including model driving data, model parameters, and model structure), (2) methods for updating basin initial conditions at the start of the forecast period; and (3) the local-scale weather/climate forecasts. This presentation summarizes our research on all three aspects of the streamflow-forecasting problem.
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1860 Runoff and streamflow
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting