HR: 08:45h
AN: H21H-04 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Seasonal to Interannual Hydroclimatic Prediction: From Identification of Dynamics to Multi-Attribute Forecasts
AU: * Lall, U
EM: ula2@columbia.edu
AF: Columbia University, Dept of Earth & Env Eng, 918 Mudd, MC4711, 500 W 120th ST, New York, NY 10027
AB: Dynamical and Statistical Models for seasonal to interannual forecasts of key hydroclimatic state variables have been explored in recent years. Many authors report success based on typical performance metrics. Thus, a casual external observer may feel that we are at the verge of a breakthrough in hydrologic prediction, and hence in water resource management. This talk explores this notion, with particular regard to the multi-scale (time and space) nature of hydrologic fluxes, and of the management variables and styles that the water resources community has become accustomed to. A conceptual framework for the nascent predictive science of hydroclimatology is developed and exemplified. Aspects of the dynamics that need to be understood, and a unifying estimation/inference framework are proposed.
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 4215 Climate and interannual variability (3309)
DE: 3220 Nonlinear dynamics
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting