HR: 10:50h
AN: H22A-03    [Abstracts]
TI: Operational Short-Term Flood Forecasting for Bangladesh: Application of ECMWF Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts
AU: * Hopson, T M
EM: thomas.hopson@colorado.edu
AF: School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology, Environmental Science and Technology Building Georgia Institute of Technology 311 Ferst Avenue, Atlanta, GA 30332-0340 United States
AU: Webster, P J
EM: pjw@eas.gatech.edu
AF: School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology, Environmental Science and Technology Building Georgia Institute of Technology 311 Ferst Avenue, Atlanta, GA 30332-0340 United States
AB: The country of Bangladesh frequently experiences severe catchment-scale flooding from the combined discharges of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Beginning in 2003, we have been disseminating upper-catchment discharge forecasts for this country to provide advanced warning for evacuation and relief measures. These forecasts are being generated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) shortterm ensemble weather forecasts and a combination of distributed and data-based modeling techniques. The forecasts from each of these models are combined using the multi-ensemble technique commonly employed in numerical weather prediction. This leads to a reduction in the overall forecast error and capitalizes on the strengths of each model during different periods of the monsoon season. In addition, the models are combined such that the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts is retained while being combined with the discharge modeling error to produce true probabilistic forecasts of discharge that are being employed operationally.
UR: http://cfab.eas.gatech.edu/shortterm/
DE: 3354 Precipitation (1854)
DE: 3399 General or miscellaneous
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1860 Runoff and streamflow
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting