HR: 16:30h
AN: H24B-03 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Australian hydro-climatic variability: Causes and Implications
AU: * Franks, S W
EM: stewart.franks@newcastle.edu.au
AF: University of Newcastle, School of Engineering, Callaghan, NSW 2308 Australia
AB: Australia has long been known to experience marked climate variability on timescales ranging from inter-annual through to multi-decadal. Recent research is beginning to elucidate the climatic mechanisms by which different modes of hydrologic variability occur. Whilst inter-annual variability can largely be ascribed to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, longer-term modes of variability are evident that correspond to the warming and cooling epochs evidenced in both Pacific and global sea surface temperature records. In this presentation, a review of the different climate modes that affect Australia will be provided within the context of the implications for hydrological and water resource design and management. Emphasis is also placed on the explanation of the different regional impacts of climate variability. This review demonstrates the key importance of understanding the longer-term modes of variability given contemporary hydrological risk estimation practices. The presentation concludes with a discussion of the possible origins of the multi-decadal variability, including an apparent link to multi-decadal solar variability. The implications for future climate risk estimation and the predictability of a `greenhouse-enhanced' future are then discussed.
DE: 1800 HYDROLOGY
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
DE: 1650 Solar variability
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting