HR: 11:05h
AN: H32B-04    [Abstracts]
TI: A Conceptual Framework for SAHRA Integrated Multi-resolution Modeling in the Rio Grande Basin
AU: * Liu, Y
EM: yqliu@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, SAHRA,Marshall Building, 845 N. Park Avenue, PO BOX 210158-B, Tucson, AZ 85721-0158 United States
AU: Gupta, H
EM: hoshin.gupta@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, SAHRA,Marshall Building, 845 N. Park Avenue, PO BOX 210158-B, Tucson, AZ 85721-0158 United States
AU: Springer, E
EM: everetts@lanl.gov
AF: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Environmental Dynamics and Spatial Analysis Group, MS J495, Los Alamos, NM 85745 United States
AU: Wagener, T
EM: thorsten@engr.psu.edu
AF: Penn State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University Park, PA 16802 United States
AU: Brookshire, D
EM: brookshi@unm.edu
AF: University of New Mexico, MSC05-3060, Department of Economics , Albuquerque, NM 87131-0001 United States
AU: Duffy, C
EM: cxd11@psu.edu
AF: Penn State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University Park, PA 16802 United States
AB: The sustainable management of water resources in a river basin requires an integrated analysis of the social, economic, environmental and institutional dimensions of the problem. Numerical models are commonly used for integration of these dimensions and for communication of the analysis results to stakeholders and policy makers. The National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) has been developing integrated multi-resolution models to assess impacts of climate variability and land use change on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin. These models not only couple natural systems such as surface and ground waters, but will also include engineering, economic and social components that may be involved in water resources decision-making processes. This presentation will describe the conceptual framework being developed by SAHRA to guide and focus the multiple modeling efforts and to assist the modeling team in planning, data collection and interpretation, communication, evaluation, etc. One of the major components of this conceptual framework is a Conceptual Site Model (CSM), which describes the basin and its environment based on existing knowledge and identifies what additional information must be collected to develop technically sound models at various resolutions. The initial CSM is based on analyses of basin profile information that has been collected, including a physical profile (e.g., topographic and vegetative features), a man-made facility profile (e.g., dams, diversions, and pumping stations), and a land use and ecological profile (e.g., demographics, natural habitats, and endangered species). Based on the initial CSM, a Conceptual Physical Model (CPM) is developed to guide and evaluate the selection of a model code (or numerical model) for each resolution to conduct simulations and predictions. A CPM identifies, conceptually, all the physical processes and engineering and socio-economic activities occurring (or to occur) in the real system that the corresponding numerical models are required to address, such as riparian evapotranspiration responses to vegetation change and groundwater pumping impacts on soil moisture contents. Simulation results from different resolution models and observations of the real system will then be compared to evaluate the consistency among the CSM, the CPMs, and the numerical models, and feedbacks will be used to update the models. In a broad sense, the evaluation of the models (conceptual or numerical), as well as the linkages between them, can be viewed as a part of the overall conceptual framework. As new data are generated and understanding improves, the models will evolve, and the overall conceptual framework is refined. The development of the conceptual framework becomes an on-going process. We will describe the current state of this framework and the open questions that have to be addressed in the future.
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 1803 Anthropogenic effects
DE: 1836 Hydrologic budget (1655)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting