HR: 11:35h
AN: H32B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Everglades restoration and the search for a supermodel
AU: * Mitchell-Bruker, S
EM: sbruker@netscape.net
AF: South Florida Natural Resources Center, Everglades National Park, 950 N. Krome Ave, Homestead, FL 33030 United States
AB: Integrated watershed management in South Florida has evolved over the past century as a necessity. The densely developed South Florida Coast and the Everglades are inextricably linked through hydrology. Agriculture and urban development were made possible by draining the Everglades. Ironically, without the vast store of water provided by the Everglades to the Biscayne Aquifer, the intense development of the South Florida Coast would not have been impossible. The impacts of early Everglades drainage were felt almost immediately and water managers in South Florida quickly learned that the management of Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades effected social, economic and natural systems throughout South Florida. South Florida Water Management District engineers were pioneers in integrated watershed management, developing a watershed management model for South Florida in the early 1970s. This model has evolved over the years and continues to be the only model available for integrating the complex dynamics of water management and hydrology from Lake Okeechobee to Florida Bay. With the authorization of an extensive 30 year project to restore the Everglades, the need for better and more sophisticated modeling approaches is apparent. Numerous efforts are underway to develop models that simulate all or part of the complex interactions between physical, biological and social systems that drive the management of the South Florida hydrology. What remains elusive is a unified vision for integrated modeling to meet the needs of the entire system. The key questions in reaching a unified vision relates to modeling strategy. Should there be a single model that addresses all of the management issues, i.e. a supermodel, or should there be an assortment of models that address individual management issues independently? Currently, efforts are underway following both approaches. Issues are explored that arise from these efforts including trade-offs between scale and detail, the dangers of over-simplification, balance between complexity and over-parameterization, the need for transparency and flexibility, ways to include uncertainty and risk, and efficient use of limited scientific and engineering resources. Recommendations are made for a modeling approach that allows for maximum flexibility using a diverse set of models in an intergrated modeling environment.
UR: http://www.evergladesplan.org
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 6615 Legislation and regulation
DE: 1803 Anthropogenic effects
DE: 1836 Hydrologic budget (1655)
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE (New category)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting