HR: 1340h
AN: H33D-0493    [Abstracts]
TI: An Example Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis at the Horonobe Site for Performance Assessment Calculations
AU: * James, S C
EM: scjames@sandia.gov
AF: Sandia National Laboratories, Geohydrology Department P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0735 United States
AU: Makino, H
EM: macky@tokai.jnc.go.jp
AF: Japanese Nuclear Cycle Development Institute, 4-33, Muramatsu, Tokai-mura Naka-Gun, Ibaraki, 319-1194 Japan
AB: Given pre-existing Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) models of the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory (URL) at both the regional and site scales, this work performs an example uncertainty analysis for performance assessment (PA) applications. After a general overview of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques, the existing GMS site-scale model is converted to a PA model of the steady-state conditions expected after URL closure. This is done to examine the impact of uncertainty in site-specific data in conjunction with conceptual model uncertainty regarding the location of the Oomagari Fault. In addition, a quantitative analysis of the ratio of dispersive to advective forces, the F-ratio, is performed for stochastic realizations of each conceptual model. All analyses indicate that accurate characterization of the Oomagari Fault with respect to both location and hydraulic conductivity is critical to PA calculations. This work defines and outlines typical uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures and demonstrates them with example PA calculations relevant to the Horonobe URL. {\st Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.}
DE: 1829 Groundwater hydrology
DE: 1832 Groundwater transport
DE: 1869 Stochastic processes
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting