HR: 14:25h
AN: H33I-04    [Abstracts]
TI: Emergent Behavior of Coupled Barrier Island - Resort Systems
AU: * McNamara, D E
EM: dmcnamara@ucsd.edu
AF: Complex Systems Laboratory, Cecil and Ida Green Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093 United States
AU: Werner, B T
EM: bwerner@ucsd.edu
AF: Complex Systems Laboratory, Cecil and Ida Green Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093 United States
AB: Barrier islands are attractive sites for resorts. Natural barrier islands experience beach erosion and island overwash during storms, beach accretion and dune building during inter-storm periods, and migration up the continental shelf as sea level rises. Beach replenishment, artificial dune building, seawalls, jetties and groins have been somewhat effective in protecting resorts against erosion and overwash during storms, but it is unknown how the coupled system will respond to long-term sea level rise. We investigate coupled barrier island - resort systems using an agent-based model with three components: natural barrier islands divided into a series of alongshore cells; resorts controlled by markets for tourism and hotel purchases; and coupling via storm damage to resorts and resort protection by government agents. Modeled barrier islands change by beach erosion, island overwash and inlet cutting during storms, and beach accretion, tidal delta growth and dune and vegetation growth between storms. In the resort hotel market, developer agents build hotels and hotel owning agents purchase them using predictions of future revenue and property appreciation, with the goal of maximizing discounted utility. In the tourism market, hotel owning agents set room rental prices to maximize profit and tourist agents choose vacation destinations maximizing a utility based on beach width, price and word-of-mouth. Government agents build seawalls, groins and jetties, and widen the beach and build up dunes by adding sand to protect resorts from storms, enhance beach quality, and maximize resort revenue. Results indicate that barrier islands and resorts evolve in a coupled manner to resort size saturation, with resorts protected against small-to-intermediate-scale storms under fairly stable sea level. Under extended, rapidly rising sea level, protection measures enhance the effect of large storms, leading to emergent behavior in the form of limit cycles or barrier submergence, depending on the relative rates of resort recovery from storms and sea level rise. The model is applied to Ocean City, Maryland and neighboring undeveloped Assateague Island National Seashore. Supported by the National Science Foundation, Geology and Paleontology Program, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation
DE: 4235 Estuarine processes
DE: 4546 Nearshore processes
DE: 3210 Modeling
DE: 1815 Erosion and sedimentation
DE: 1890 Wetlands
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting