HR: 0800h
AN: H51D-1185    [Abstracts]
TI: Assessing Ecological Function with Hydrologic Models in Restoration Projects: Matching Expectations with Predictive Capability
AU: * Downer, C W
EM: Chuck_Downer@nps.gov
AF: South Florida Natural Resources Center, Everglades National Park, 950 N. Krome Ave., Homestead, FL 33030 United States
AU: Mitchell, S M
EM: Sherry_Mitchell@nps.gov
AF: South Florida Natural Resources Center, Everglades National Park, 950 N. Krome Ave., Homestead, FL 33030 United States
AU: Engel, V
EM: Vic_Engle@nps.gov
AF: South Florida Natural Resources Center, Everglades National Park, 950 N. Krome Ave., Homestead, FL 33030 United States
AB: The attempt to return the Everglades to a more naturally functioning ecosystem is the world's most ambitious environmental restoration project. Restoration success has been defined in terms of ecological performance measures, the criteria used to judge and select among various alternative project designs. Since ecological function in the Everglades is strongly linked to the hydrologic cycle, performance measures are developed by identifying hydrologic conditions (e.g. critical water depths) that support key ecological functions. Hydrologic models are then used to analyze these performance measures. In many cases the performance measures and the hydrologic models are developed independently. Ecologists develop the performance measures, generally without a full understanding of the predictive capability of the simulation models that will be used in the analysis. Engineers build the numerical models, but with only limited appreciation of how the models will be applied toward decision-making based on ecologic performance measures. This large divide between ecologists and engineers can result in models that are unable to produce the information required to assess the ecological criteria. The hydrologic models fail to produce the hydrologic information necessary to predict ecological response, or more likely, cannot produce the required information at the correct scale or within some required accuracy or range of uncertainty. To illustrate the potential pitfalls of the disconnect between ecologists and hydrologic modelers, we present projects and associated performance measures currently being applied in Everglades restoration. From these illustrations suggestions are made for improving the co-development of performance measures and models. General principles regarding restoration project evaluation and analyses are also derived.
DE: 1851 Plant ecology
DE: 1860 Runoff and streamflow
DE: 1890 Wetlands
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting