HR: 10:35h
AN: NG22A-02 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Short-Term Earthquake Prediction Based on the Reverse Tracing of Lithosphere Dynamics
AU: * Keilis-Borok, V
EM: vkb@ess.ucla.edu
AF: Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 United States
AU: * Keilis-Borok, V
EM: vkb@ess.ucla.edu
AF: International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Warshavskoe sh. 79, korp. 2, Moscow, 113556 Russian Federation
AU: Shebalin, P
EM: shebalin@mitp.ru
AF: International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Warshavskoe sh. 79, korp. 2, Moscow, 113556 Russian Federation
AU: Shebalin, P
EM: shebalin@mitp.ru
AF: Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4, Place Jussieu, Paris, 75005 France
AU: Gabrielov, A
EM: agabriel@math.purdue.edu
AF: Departments of Mathematics and Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, 47907 United States
AU: Turcotte, D
EM: turcotte@geology.ucdavis.edu
AF: Geology Department, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 United States
AU: Zaliapin, I
EM: zal@ess.ucla.edu
AF: Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 United States
AU: Ghil, M
EM: ghil@atmos.ucla.edu
AF: Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 United States
AB: We describe the methodology for detecting short -term earthquake precursors with characteristic lead time months. Physical mechanism underlying this methodology comprises interaction of two processes in a fault network: accumulation of energy that the earthquake will release; and triggering that release by decrease of the network's integral strength. These processes are captured by an ensemble of seismicity patterns. Methodology detects such patterns by tracing dynamics of seismicity backwards in time; accordingly, it is named "Reverse Tracing of Precursors" (RTP). The principles of PTP are not specific to earthquakes and might be applicable to the wider class of hierarchical non-linear systems. Methodology is put to test by experiment in advance prediction of earthquakes in several regions.
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
DE: 3200 MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS (New field)
DE: 3210 Modeling
DE: 3220 Nonlinear dynamics
DE: 3240 Chaos
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting