HR: 11:35h
AN: NG22A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Elasto-Dynamic and CA Simulation Model Studies of the Critical Point Hypothesis
AU: * Mora, P
EM: morap@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: QUAKES, Earth Systems Science Computational Centre, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: * Mora, P
EM: morap@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator Major National Research Facility, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: Weatherley, D
EM: dion@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: QUAKES, Earth Systems Science Computational Centre, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: Weatherley, D
EM: dion@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator Major National Research Facility, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: Xing, H
EM: xing@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: QUAKES, Earth Systems Science Computational Centre, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: Xing, H
EM: xing@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator Major National Research Facility, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: Latham, S
EM: slatham@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: QUAKES, Earth Systems Science Computational Centre, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: Latham, S
EM: slatham@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator Major National Research Facility, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: Saez, E
EM: saez@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: QUAKES, Earth Systems Science Computational Centre, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: Saez, E
EM: saez@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator Major National Research Facility, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: Abe, S
EM: steffen@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: QUAKES, Earth Systems Science Computational Centre, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AU: Abe, S
EM: steffen@esscc.uq.edu.au
AF: Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator Major National Research Facility, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia
AB: Elasto-dynamic numerical simulation models and CA provide a means to study the dynamic and complex system behaviour of fault systems. Various observational, theoretical and computational evidence suggests that crustal fault systems exhibit critical point like behaviour in which correlations in the stress field grow as smaller earthquakes modify the stress field and prepare the system for the occurrence of a large event. Here, we present and compare results of three different simulation models, 2D and 3D finite element simulations of interacting fault systems, 2D and 3D lattice solid particle simulations of granular zones, and CA models of fault systems. The results suggest that stress within fault systems does evolve and with some characteristics of critical point systems, and that there may be only two regimes of phase space, one in which earthquakes are forecastable and a second in which they are not. Comparisons between the CA and elasto-dynamic models suggest that typical elasto-dynamic systems may lie near the transition between these regimes determined by tuning parameters such as viscosity, fault density and geometry, and deformation rates.
DE: 7209 Earthquake dynamics and mechanics
DE: 3210 Modeling
DE: 3220 Nonlinear dynamics
DE: 3230 Numerical solutions
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting