HR: 0800h
AN: NG31A-0849    [Abstracts]
TI: A model for inter-occurrence time distribution of aftershocks
AU: * Shcherbakov, R
EM: rshcherbakov@ucdavis.edu
AF: Center for Computational Science and Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 United States
AU: Turcotte, D L
EM: turcotte@geology.ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 United States
AU: Rundle, J B
EM: jbrundle@ucdavis.edu
AF: Center for Computational Science and Engineering and Dept. of Physics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 United States
AU: Morein, G
EM: gleb@cse.ucdavis.edu
AF: Center for Computational Science and Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 United States
AB: Earthquakes are characterized by several scaling laws. These laws are defined in temporal and spatial domains and are manifestations of underlying nonlinear irreversible dynamics of the upper brittle crust. In this work we study the temporal decay rates of aftershock sequences of major California earthquakes and propose a generalized law incorporating the three empirical laws: the Gutenberg-Richter relation, Omori's law for the temporal evolution of aftershocks, and the modified Bath's law for the difference between the magnitudes of a main shock and its largest aftershock. We also study the inter-occurrence time distribution between earthquakes and introduce a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) to quantify the observed scaling. In this model we employ the generalized Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks as a time dependent rate in NHPP. We also examine the stretched-exponential rate derived from the mean-field approximation to earthquake processes as a time dependent rate in NHPP. Using the analytically derived distribution of inter-occurrence times, we apply this scaling to several major aftershock sequences in California to confirm the validity of our hypothesis. We argue that the NHPP combined with the generalized Omori's law or the stretched-exponential rate can be used to quantify the observed temporal scaling of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes.
DE: 7260 Theory and modeling
DE: 7215 Earthquake parameters
DE: 3200 MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS (New field)
DE: 3210 Modeling
DE: 3220 Nonlinear dynamics
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting