HR: 0800h
AN: NG31A-0867    [Abstracts]
TI: A Cooperative Test of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Proposed Method of Earthquake Prediction
AU: * Trotta, J E
EM: Julie\_Trotta@brown.edu
AF: Brown University, Department of Geology 324 Brook Street Box 1846, Providence, RI 02912 United States
AU: Tullis, T E
EM: Terry\_Tullis@brown.edu
AF: Brown University, Department of Geology 324 Brook Street Box 1846, Providence, RI 02912 United States
AB: The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is a proposed technique to predict earthquakes that was first put forward by Yin in 1984 (Yin, 1987). LURR is based on the idea that when a region is near failure, there is an increase in the rate of seismic activity during loading of the tidal cycle relative to the rate of seismic activity during unloading of the tidal cycle. Typically the numerator of the LURR ratio is the number, or the sum of some measure of the size (e.g. Benioff strain), of small earthquakes that occur during loading of the tidal cycle, whereas the denominator is the same as the numerator except it is calculated during unloading. LURR method suggests this ratio should increase in the months to year preceding a large earthquake. Regions near failure have tectonic stresses nearly high enough for a large earthquake to occur, thus it seems more likely that smaller earthquakes in the region would be triggered when the tidal stresses add to the tectonic ones. However, until recently even the most careful studies suggested that the effect of tidal stresses on earthquake occurrence is very small and difficult to detect. New studies have shown that there is a tidal triggering effect on shallow thrust faults in areas with strong tides from ocean loading (Tanaka et al., 2002; Cochran et al., 2004). We have been conducting an independent test of the LURR method, since there would be important scientific and social implications if the LURR method were proven to be a robust method of earthquake prediction. Smith and Sammis (2003) also undertook a similar study. Following both the parameters of Yin et al. (2000) and the somewhat different ones of Smith and Sammis (2003), we have repeated calculations of LURR for the Northridge and Loma Prieta earthquakes in California. Though we have followed both sets of parameters closely, we have been unable to reproduce either set of results. A general agreement was made at the recent ACES Workshop in China between research groups studying LURR to work cooperatively to discover what is causing these differences in results. All parties will share codes and data sets, be more specific regarding the calculation parameters, and develop a synthetic data set for which we know the expected LURR value. Each research group will then test their codes and the codes of other groups on this synthetic data set. The goal of this cooperative effort is to resolve the differences in methods and results and permit more definitive conclusions on the potential usefulness of LURR in earthquake prediction.
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
DE: 8164 Stresses--crust and lithosphere
DE: 7209 Earthquake dynamics and mechanics
DE: 3220 Nonlinear dynamics
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting