HR: 17:00h
AN: NG54A-05 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Earthquake Forecasting;Linear and Non-Linear Evolution
AU: * Klein, W
EM: klein@bu.edu
AF: Boston University, 590 Commonwealth Ave., Boston, MA 02468 United States
AU: Rundle, J B
EM: jbrundle@ucdavis.edu
AF: University of California at Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616 United States
AU: Tiampo, K F
EM: ktiampo@seis.es.uwo.ca
AF: University of Western Ontario, Biological and Geological Sciences Bldg., London, ONT N6A 5B7 Canada
AU: Holliday, J
EM: holliday@physics.ucdavis.edu
AF: University of California at Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616 United States
AB: Forecasting earthquakes is thought to require a deep understanding of the non-linear processes involved in the evolution of complex fault systems. However, we have proposed a forecasting algorithm that has had considerable success in forecasting probabilities of earthquakes with magnitude greater than four(J. B. Rundle et al, Phys. Rev. E {\bf 61} 2418 (2000) by assuming that the evolution of seismicity is linear. More precisely, the assumption is that the evolution of seismicity is governed by a phase dynamics where a properly chosen seismicity vector rotates in a high dimensional function space (Hilbert space) with out any change in magnitude. In this sense the system behaves as if it were governed by a Schroedinger equation. The purpose of this talk is to demonstrate that in some reasonable approximation this is indeed true. Not only do these results provide a mathematical foundation for our approach but they point the way to understanding the limits of the approach as well as possible directions for improvement.
DE: 7260 Theory and modeling
DE: 3210 Modeling
DE: 3220 Nonlinear dynamics
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting