HR: 0800h
AN: OS11A-0480    [Abstracts]
TI: Progress on a Real-Time Storm Surge Forecasting System
AU: * Weaver, R J
EM: rweaver@coastal.ufl.edu
AF: University of Florida Dept. Civil & Coastal Engineering, 548 Weil Hall PO Box 116580, Gainesville, Fl 32611-6580 United States
AU: Slinn, D N
EM: slinn@coastal.ufl.edu
AF: University of Florida Dept. Civil & Coastal Engineering, 548 Weil Hall PO Box 116580, Gainesville, Fl 32611-6580 United States
AB: As part of an ongoing NOPP project entitled Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge from Tropical Cyclones, we are developing a storm surge prediction scheme. 2004 has proven to be an excellent year for testing the model with one of the most active hurricane seasons on record. In developing our storm surge predictions, we seek to couple the wind, pressure and wave stress with the circulation model. We use the Advanced Circulation model, ADCIRC, to calculate the change in surface elevation. We began testing our system on hurricane Georges (1998). In these tests we found that including the wave stresses in a storm surge prediction scheme was important. The waves were found to contribute about 30% to the total water level increase. In some areas the waves can contribute significantly more on the order of 50%. Including the wave forcing reduced the normalized RMS error by 20 to 50%. For the case of hurricane Georges we are satisfied with the predictive results which yielded a MSE of less that \( 0.10 m^{2} \). We test our system next by running a hindcast of hurricane Isabel (2003). In this model scenario we hold all variables constant with those used in the run of hurricane Georges and only vary the wind, pressure and wave field. We are working for a model system that minimizes error without having to tune the model to specific storms. Our results for hurricane Isabel are compared to the measured sea level response. From a series of plots we see that with no tuning of the model formulations we achieve agreement with the recorded data. We will also present preliminary results from the 2004 hurricane season. This includes real-time model forecasts of Charlie, Frances and Ivan. These results are compared with the field data recorded at tidal stations.
DE: 4255 Numerical modeling
DE: 4263 Ocean prediction
DE: 4504 Air/sea interactions (0312)
DE: 4546 Nearshore processes
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting