HR: 11:35h
AN: OS22B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Run-up and Inundation in Hawaii due to Distant Tsunamis
AU: * Gica, E
EM: gica@eng.hawaii.edu
AF: University of Hawaii at Manoa, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering 2540 Dole Street, Holmes 383, Honolulu, HI 96822 United States
AU: Teng, M H
EM: teng@wiliki.eng.hawaii.edu
AF: University of Hawaii at Manoa, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering 2540 Dole Street, Holmes 383, Honolulu, HI 96822 United States
AU: Liu, P L
EM: pll3@cornell.edu
AF: Cornell University, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Hollister Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-3501 United States
AB: Risk assessment of natural hazards usually includes two aspects, namely, the probability of the natural hazard occurrence and the degree of damage caused by the natural hazard. Our current study is focused on the first aspect, i.e., the development and evaluation of a methodology that can predict the probability of coastal inundation due to distant tsunamis in the Pacific Basin. The calculation of the probability of tsunami inundation could be a simple statistical problem if a sufficiently long record of field data on inundation was available. Unfortunately, such field data are very limited in the Pacific Basin due to the reason that field measurement of inundation requires the physical presence of surveyors on site. In some areas, no field measurements were ever conducted in the past. Fortunately, there are more complete and reliable historical data on earthquakes in the Pacific Basin partly because earthquakes can be measured remotely. There are also numerical simulation models such as the Cornell COMCOT model that can predict tsunami generation by an earthquake, propagation in the open ocean, and inundation onto a coastal land. Our objective is to develop a methodology that can link the probability of earthquakes in the Pacific Basin with the inundation probability in a coastal area. The probabilistic methodology applied here involves the following steps: first, the Pacific Rim is divided into blocks of potential earthquake sources based on the past earthquake record and fault information. Then the COMCOT model is used to predict the inundation at a distant coastal area due to a tsunami generated by an earthquake of a particular magnitude in each source block. This simulation generates a response relationship between the coastal inundation and an earthquake of a particular magnitude and location. Since the earthquake statistics is known for each block, by summing the probability of all earthquakes in the Pacific Rim, the probability of the inundation in a coastal area can be determined through the response relationship. Although the idea of the statistical methodology applied here is not new, this study is the first to apply it to study the probability of inundation caused by earthquake-generated distant tsunamis in the Pacific Basin. As a case study, the methodology is applied to predict the tsunami inundation risk in Hilo Bay in Hawaii. Since relatively more field data on tsunami inundation are available for Hilo Bay, this case study can help to evaluate the applicability of the methodology for predicting tsunami inundation risk in the Pacific Basin. Detailed results will be presented at the AGU meeting.
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
DE: 4255 Numerical modeling
DE: 4263 Ocean prediction
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting