HR: 11:50h
AN: OS22B-07    [Abstracts]
TI: Progress Towards a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard map for New Zealand
AU: * Power, W L
EM: w.power@gns.cri.nz
AF: Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited, 69 Gracefield Road PO Box 30368 , Lower Hutt, 6009 New Zealand
AU: Downes, G L
EM: g.downes@gns.cri.nz
AF: Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited, 69 Gracefield Road PO Box 30368 , Lower Hutt, 6009 New Zealand
AU: Stirling, M W
EM: m.stirling@gns.cri.nz
AF: Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited, 69 Gracefield Road PO Box 30368 , Lower Hutt, 6009 New Zealand
AB: New Zealand sits on the Pacific `ring-of-fire' and has a long shoreline exposed to the open ocean. As such it is at a moderate to high risk from tsunami, a conclusion which is confirmed by records of historical tsunami and geological evidence of paleo-tsunami. In recent years there has been a considerable impetus for development of coastal areas. For these reasons maps of tsunami inundation hazard, akin to maps of seismic hazard, would be very useful for planning purposes. However the task of producing such maps is made difficult by the diversity of potential tsunami sources and the short span of historical records in New Zealand. As a first step we have decided to concentrate on the most frequently recurring source of hazardous tsunami for New Zealand, namely large subduction-zone earthquakes along the South-American coast. In this presentation we demonstrate our initial attempts to model the spatial and seismic properties of the South-American subduction zone, and our method for relating simulated earthquake events to tsunami hazard at the New Zealand coastline using the MOST tsunami propagation model [1]. Results from this initial modelling will be described and compared against qualitative expectations of hazard based on historical events and the morphology of the seabed. The techniques for producing tsunami hazard maps are at an early stage of development and we will discuss the limitations of our work so far and our plans for future improvements. [1] Titov, V. V. and Gonzalez, F. L. (1997). Implementation and testing of Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL PMEL-112.
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
DE: 7215 Earthquake parameters
DE: 4255 Numerical modeling
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting