HR: 1340h
AN: OS23D-1340    [Abstracts]
TI: Inundation Modeling for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment
AU: * Titov, V V
EM: Vasily.Titov@noaa.gov
AF: JISAO, NOAA/PMEL, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Bldg. 3, Seattle, WA 98115 United States
AU: Arcas, D
EM: diego.arcas@noaa.gov
AF: JISAO, NOAA/PMEL, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Bldg. 3, Seattle, WA 98115 United States
AU: Kanoglu, U
EM: kanoglu@metu.edu.tr
AF: Middle East Technical University, Department of Engineering Sciences, Ankara, 06531 Turkey
AU: Newman, J
EM: jean.c.newman@noaa.gov
AF: JISAO, NOAA/PMEL, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Bldg. 3, Seattle, WA 98115 United States
AU: Gonzalez, F I
EM: Frank.I.Gonzalez@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/PMEL, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Bldg. 3, Seattle, WA 98115 United States
AB: Developing quantitative estimates for site-specific tsunami hazard assessments require substantial modeling efforts to simulate potential tsunami impacts. For most locations, the use of historical data alone is not sufficient to derive long- and short-term hazard estimates. Such studies demand additional model data to fill in the gaps in the historical records. Even if a wealth of historical data is available, extra modeling estimates are warranted to account for changes of coastal infrastructure and/or for probable but non-historical events. The goals of numerical modeling for such studies differ substantially from the goals of a typical hindcast simulation, where the model results are compared with various field data for a specific historical event. In probabilistic modeling, comparison with historical data is only the first preliminary step of the study, to ensure reliability of multiple model estimates for probable events. In this respect, the probabilistic simulations are similar to forecast modeling, which employs a similar methodology for model use. We present the methodology and preliminary results of the modeling study of Seaside, Oregon to produce a model database for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Multiple simulations have been performed for a large number of potential far- and near-field tsunami sources using the MOST numerical model. Unlike previous tsunami probabilistic studies, high-resolution numerical grids are employed to resolve details and internal structure of the computed flood zones for each modeled event. Although Seaside does not have a tide gage to record historical tsunamis, some historical tsunami inundation data is available in the form of inundation zone estimates and tsunami sediment data for a limited number of historical events. The numerical model was tested against available historical tsunami measurements. Full numerical solutions for the high-resolution grid are retained for each model run to form a model database that can be used to perform various analyses and probabilistic estimates.
DE: 4558 Sediment transport
DE: 4560 Surface waves and tides (1255)
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
DE: 3210 Modeling
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting