HR: 17:20h
AN: OS34A-06 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Changing Arctic Ice Cover and Water Resources in the American West
AU: * Sewall, J O
EM: jsewall@es.ucsc.edu
AF: Department of Earth Sciences University of California, Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 United States
AU: Sloan, L C
EM: lcsloan@es.ucsc.edu
AF: Department of Earth Sciences University of California, Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 United States
AB: Over the last century, Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically and many researchers expect that future greenhouse warming will exacerbate this trend. The prospect of a warmer Arctic with less ice raises many environmental and economic questions, one of which is: How will reduced Arctic ice cover affect extrapolar climates? Previous research suggests that a reduction in Arctic sea ice corresponding to that projected for the year 2050 could drive a 50 - 100% increase in annual evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) in the American West. The projected 2050 ice cover that drives this response in E-P is characterized by a significant decrease in ice concentrations in the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian (GIN) seas and an increase in ice concentration in the Davis Strait. In addition, sea surface temperatures in the GIN seas increase and those in the Fram and Davis Straits decrease significantly. A recent series of sensitivity studies shows that changes in the precipitation regime over the American West, while sensitive to individual anomalies, are responding as much to the combined pattern of multiple anomalies as to the magnitude and sign of individual anomalies. This result highlights the complexity of predicting climate impacts of, or responses to, changes in Arctic surface conditions and suggests that continued research into the relationship between the Arctic and global climate is extremely important if we hope to quantify future climate change.
DE: 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504)
DE: 1803 Anthropogenic effects
DE: 1812 Drought
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting