HR: 15:10h
AN: OS53A-05    [Abstracts]
TI: Nowcast Skill of the New York Harbor Observation and Prediction System
AU: * Blumberg, A F
EM: ablumber@stevens.edu
AF: Center for Marine Systems Stevens Institute of Technology, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030 United States
AU: Bruno, M S
EM: mbruno@stevens.edu
AF: Center for Marine Systems Stevens Institute of Technology, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030 United States
AU: Fullerton, B
EM: bfullert@stevens.edu
AF: Center for Marine Systems Stevens Institute of Technology, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030 United States
AU: Fan, S
EM: sfan1@stevens.edu
AF: Center for Marine Systems Stevens Institute of Technology, Castle Point on Hudson, Hoboken, NJ 07030 United States
AB: The New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS) provides nowcasts and forecasts of surface/bottom currents, salinities and temperatures, waves, and water level, for the New York /New Jersey Harbor Estuary including the waters eastward to the continental shelf break of the New York Bight and Long Island Sound in one contiguous fashion. The system has been in operation since the end of 2003. The operations, from the acquisition of oceanographic and meteorological data to the delivery of marine nowcast/forecast information to a wide group of users are now automated. The observational system consists of shore-based and moored platforms at strategic locations inside the harbor, and at four sites along the coast of New Jersey, most of them equipped with both oceanographic and meteorological sensors. Ferry-based conductivity and temperature sensors are also part of the observational network. The Stevens web site imports and serves all available real-time data (www.stevens.edu/maritimeforecast). The prediction system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model and is designed to provide accurate and comprehensive realizations of meteorological and oceanographic conditions. Forcing is based on NOAA/NWS/NCEP's Mesoscale Eta 12km atmospheric forecast model, USGS river flow gauges, NOAA/NOS water level stations and effluents from 110 wastewater treatment plants. The water level at all the open boundary locations is specified by a combination of a reconstructed tidal record using tidal harmonics and by persisting the low frequency observed water level variation at Atlantic City, NJ. Temperature and salinity at the open boundaries are taken from climatology. The system is designed to automatically transfer forcing data and perform forecasts once daily, at 0000 hours. In order to firmly establish the credibility and robustness of NYHOPS, a skill assessment protocol continually runs in the background. This protocol has been implemented to quantify the accuracy of the system products. The first step in the assessment process, to be reported here, involves the nowcast portion of the forecast system. Point measurements and spatial maps of observed water levels, temperature and salinity at ten spatially distributed locations have been used to determine the skill of the system nowcasts. While the analysis indicates that the system skill is quite reasonable, regions have been identified where higher model resolution and better observational coverage are needed. A data assimilation scheme suitable for the highly variable NYHOPS environment is being developed and implemented. The scheme is being guided by the distribution of model errors.
DE: 4247 Marine meteorology
DE: 4255 Numerical modeling
DE: 4294 Instruments and techniques
DE: 4299 General or miscellaneous
DE: 4546 Nearshore processes
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting