HR: 16:25h
AN: PA24A-02 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: GCMs and MDGs: can climate science reduce poverty?
AU: * Thomson, M C
EM: mthomson@iri.columbia.edu
AF: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Earth Instute Columbia University LDEO, Palisades, NY 10964 United States
AU: Connor, S J
EM: sjconnor@iri.columbia.edu
AF: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Earth Instute Columbia University LDEO, Palisades, NY 10964 United States
AB: Sub-Saharan Africa, the birthplace of humankind, is seen by many, both as the least developed region of the world, and the region where the processes of globalization and sustainable development are most difficult to set in motion. Sub-Saharan African countries invariably appear en masse at the bottom of the annual UNDP Human Development Report rankings with development indicators such as life expectancy and basic nutrition levels in decline. The poorer communities are most vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate fluctuations and seen as the least able to cope with current climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa has a population of approximately 625 million, with more than two thirds of the people dependant on rain-fed agriculture. The vast majority of the population lack access to clean water and sanitation and sub-Saharan Africa currently bears the highest burden of infectious diseases such as HIV-AIDS, TB and Malaria to be found anywhere in the world. With almost half of the region's population living on less than US$1 per day, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for one quarter of the world's poor. The rural poor are often considered to have no voice and therefore form a very weak political constituency. International development targets such as the recently articulated UN Millennium Development Goals are seen as one means of giving voice to this large but disenfranchised population. Improved management of climate sensitive sectors is essential to achieving a number of the MDgs: Poverty-Hunger, Disease, Water and sanitation. Climate information is also essential to measuring that achievement, as climate often acts as a confounder in any analysis of interventions. Here we present work on how climate science, including state of the art - multi-model ensemble seasonal climate forecasting models, are being used in support of achieving the MDGs in Africa.
DE: 9305 Africa
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
SC: Public Affairs [PA]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting