HR: 0800h
AN: PA51A-1464    [Abstracts]
TI: Health And Economic Impact Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction In Indonesia: SO2
AU: * Susandi, A
EM: susandi@dkrz.de
AF: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, 20146 Germany
AU: * Susandi, A
EM: susandi@dkrz.de
AF: Dept. Geophysics and Meteorology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesa No. 10, Bandung, 40132 Indonesia
AB: The objective of this study is to assess Indonesia's air quality. This comprised an assessment of Indonesia's air pollution levels and their impact on the development of health and the economics. Estimates are given of concentrations of one of the major pollutants: sulfur dioxide (SO2). Emissions are estimated for Indonesian region, based on energy consumption, derived from the MERGE simulation model. The air pollution levels projection for the year 2000 to the year 2100 are based on the IPCC scenarios, extended with some mitigation scenarios for the energy sector. If the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries reduce their emissions, Indonesian oil consumption increases, and the emissions of SO2 are higher than in the baseline scenario. Health problems increase substantially, peaking to the middle of century in the A1B and B1 scenarios, and rising to the end of century in the A2 and B2 scenarios, while the health problem costs will be the highest during the middle of century in the A1B and B1 scenarios and toward the end of century in the A2 and B2 scenarios. With international trade in emission permits, Indonesia would be higher than in the baseline scenario, since more and more oil and coal using in domestic sources of energy, followed by higher of health problem cases and higher of health problem costs. The total cases of health problem are higher 18.5% than in the baseline scenario. If all countries reduce their emission, including Indonesia, the total concentrations of SO2 are lower than previous scenarios. The cases of health problem associated with SO2 are lower than in the baseline scenario and follow by the lower of the health problem costs. The costs of health problem associated with SO2 are to 35% lower than in the baseline scenario during the simulation period.
DE: 6300 POLICY SCIENCES
DE: 6314 Demand estimation
DE: 1694 Instruments and techniques
DE: 1630 Impact phenomena
DE: 0345 Pollution--urban and regional (0305)
SC: Public Affairs [PA]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting