HR: 0800h
AN: PA51A-1466    [Abstracts]
TI: Aggressive Strategies for Residential Energy and Carbon Savings by 2025
AU: * Ling, F H
EM: frank@socrates.berkeley.edu
AF: Energy and Resources Group, University of California at Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-3050 United States
AU: * Ling, F H
EM: frank@socrates.berkeley.edu
AF: Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory, University of California at Berkeley, 4152 Etcheverry Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 United States
AU: Kammen, D M
EM: kammen@berkeley.edu
AF: Energy and Resources Group, University of California at Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-3050 United States
AU: Kammen, D M
EM: kammen@berkeley.edu
AF: Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory, University of California at Berkeley, 4152 Etcheverry Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 United States
AU: Kammen, D M
EM: kammen@berkeley.edu
AF: Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California at Berkeley, 2607 Hearst Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720-7320 United States
AB: Energy efficiency technologies and practices have long been recognized as a low-cost, often least cost, option that can be deployed widely throughout the economy (Steve Nadel, 2002; Donald A. Hanson and John A. Laitner, 2003). We are engaged in a review of technology-based energy savings options throughout the U. S. economy with a joint focus on both immediate savings opportunities and long-term strategies for accelerating the innovation process and pipeline. For the near term, we developed scenarios based on available 'off the shelf' technologies and practices for achieving minimum energy consumption in lighting, standby power in electronics, and miscellaneous end-uses in the U.S. residential sector. In the business-as-usual (BAU) case, energy consumption continues to grow despite innovations at a current rate of 1.7 percent/year (Laitner, 2004). Nevertheless, the need for developing new energy supplies can be mitigated through the use of 'best current technologies' as the industry norm in 2025. Figure 1 (see URL below) shows this reduction in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The BAU model corresponds to the current rate of 'decarbonization' in the overall U.S. economy (Energy Information Administration, 2004). Over a twenty-year period, about 2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide and 30 quads of primary fuel could be saved through the introduction of "best current technology" with the greatest reductions in the area of lighting technologies. In 2025, 1.5 quads of primary energy is saved with the breakdown in end-use electricity saved as follows: 113 TWh (0.39 quads), 70.8 TWh (0.24 quads), and 62 TWh (0.21 quads) for residential lighting, appliance standards, and standby power respectively. In addition, there is empirical evidence from specific technology sectors, from statewide programs in California, as well as on theoretical grounds (Laitner, 2004) that innovation and decarbonization rates of 3 to 5 percent/year have at times been, and could again be achieved. While such high rates of innovation do not usually sustain themselves for more than a few years, innovation rates higher than the current 1.7 percent/year are also explored in this study. Acknowledgement: Alliance to Save Energy (ASE) and Energy Foundation References: {\bf Energy Information Administration.} "Annual Energy Outlook 2004." Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, 2004. {\bf Hanson, Donald A. and Laitner, John A. "Skip".} "An Integrated Analysis of Policies That Increase Investments in Advanced Energy-Efficient/Low-Carbon Technologies." Energy Economics, 2003. {\bf Laitner, J. A.} "How far energy efficiency." 2004. {\bf Nadel, Steve.} "Appliance and Equipment Efficiency Standards." Annual Reviews, 2002.
UR: http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~frank/AGU_Abstract_Figure1.tif
DE: 6304 Benefit-cost analysis
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 6324 Legislation and regulations
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE (New category)
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
SC: Public Affairs [PA]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting