HR: 10:20h
AN: PA52A-01    [Abstracts]
TI: Formulating Climate Policy in Terms of Risk Management
AU: * Jacoby, H D
EM: Hjacoby@mit.edu
AF: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (E40-439), Cambridge, MA 02139 United States
AB: Much discussion of long-term climate targets and short-term Kyoto-type agreements is misdirected because of a lack of widespread understanding of uncertainty in human-climate interaction and of the crucial roles of inertia in social systems, the stock-pollutant nature of greenhouse gases, and the influence of long lags in the ocean. A clearer perception of the risk-management nature of the issue requires a joint analysis of forces driving greenhouse emissions and climate system response, taking these factors into account. It is a task requiring the integration of methods and models of the natural (climate) sciences and the social sciences. This talk will discuss the challenge and present an example of the needed studies, highlighting controversies and problems attending this type of integrated analysis.
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 6699 General or miscellaneous
DE: 1699 General or miscellaneous
SC: Public Affairs [PA]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting