HR: 10:40h
AN: PA52A-02    [Abstracts]
TI: Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of "Dangerous" Climate Change
AU: * Mastrandrea, M D
EM: mikemas@stanford.edu
AF: Stanford University, Center for Environmental Science and Policy Encina Hall East, Stanford, CA 94305-6055
AB: Uncertainties in projections of future climate change due to natural and social parameters of the climate system are often used as a basis for decisions to delay climate policy. However, if we wish to influence the trajectory of future climate change and avoid potentially "dangerous" climate impacts, we must make decisions under uncertainty, an accepted practice in many other sectors. This talk will present a probabilistic conceptual framework for defining "dangerous" climate change, a policy-relevant impact threshold which the US and over 190 other signatories to the UNFCCC have committed to preventing. It will also present an example of application of this metric to projections of future climate change, to demonstrate the linkage of climate policy decisions to risk management of "dangerous" climate change.
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE (New category)
SC: Public Affairs [PA]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting