HR: 0800h
AN: S11A-1006    [Abstracts]
TI: Analysis of the M=7.2 1992 Cape Mendocino Earthquake with Kinematic Source Models and Empirical Green's Functions
AU: * Kane, D L
EM: dlkane@ucsd.edu
AF: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808 L-203, Livermore, CA 94551 United States
AU: Hutchings, L J
EM: hutchings2@llnl.gov
AF: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808 L-203, Livermore, CA 94551 United States
AB: The M=7.2 Cape Mendocino earthquake occurred on April 25, 1992 and is potentially the first subduction zone earthquake recorded in the Mendocino Triple Junction region. We utilize recordings of weak motion events as empirical Green's functions to constrain the propagation path effects of the earthquakes in forward kinematic modeling. Using constraints based on the 1992 event, we create kinematic source models based upon physical parameters of fault rupture and generate a suite of synthetic accelerograms to identify potential fault rupture characteristics of the actual earthquake. The precise fault for the 1992 earthquake is not known, so we confine the calculations to a small source volume where the earthquake likely occurred and run 100 scenario earthquakes. This also provides a test of a physically-based methodology to predict the range of ground motion that may occur from a particular magnitude earthquake along a specific fault or within a specific source volume. We test whether the actual ground motion recordings fall within the range predicted. We also test the hypothesis that some of the synthesized records will match those observed, and we make the assumption that the source models for these records are close to what actually occurred. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48.
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
DE: 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting