HR: 08:00h
AN: S21C-01    [Abstracts]
TI: A Progress Report on the Working Group for the Development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM)
AU: * Field, E H
EM: field@usgs.gov
AF: United States Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson Ave, Pasadena, CA 91106 United States
AB: Recent studies have demonstrated that dramatic improvements in seismic-hazard analysis (SHA) will require a more physics-based approach to modeling. At the same time, proper SHA requires that all viable models be included in the analysis. To meet these challenges, the Southern California Earthquake Center has an ongoing Working Group for the development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM; http://www.RELM.org). The goal is to develop a variety of viable, earthquake-rupture forecast models (rather than one consensus model), to formally test each against available geophysical observations, and to evaluate the seismic hazard implications. The models currently under development range in sophistication from simple Poisson models (e.g., based on smoothed historical seismicity), to physical earthquake simulators that track stress changes throughout the system. One model, called the SCEC Earthquake Rupture Forecast, will be a logical extension of the "consensus" models developed by previous Working Groups on California Earthquake Probabilities. However, it will be both object oriented (modular), allowing improved components to be plugged in when available, and living in the sense that the influence of any significant events will be accounted for in real time.
UR: http://www.RELM.org
DE: 7221 Paleoseismology
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
DE: 7230 Seismicity and seismotectonics
DE: 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering
DE: 3210 Modeling
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting