HR: 09:00h
AN: S21C-05    [Abstracts]
TI: Test of a Short-Term Prediction Algorithm
AU: Shebalin, P
EM: shebalin@mitp.ru
AF: International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Warshavskoe sh., 79, korp. 2, Moscow, 113556 Russian Federation
AU: Shebalin, P
EM: shebalin@mitp.ru
AF: Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4, Place Jussieu, Paris, 75005 France
AU: * Keilis-Borok, V
EM: vkb@ess.ucla.edu
AF: International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Warshavskoe sh., 79, korp. 2, Moscow, 113556 Russian Federation
AU: * Keilis-Borok, V
EM: vkb@ess.ucla.edu
AF: Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 United States
AU: Uyeda, S
EM: suyeda@st.rim.or.jp
AF: Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai University, Shimizu, 424-8610 Japan
AB: We describe the ongoing test of the algorithm "RTP"(Reverse Tracing of Precursors) for short-term (months in advance) prediction of strong earthquakes. Algorithm is based on integration of geodynamical models of fault networks, models of non-linear-dynamics type, and pattern recognition analysis of observed and modeled seismicity. Performance of the algorithm is evaluated by advance prediction in California, Japan, Middle East, and Italy with adjacent areas.
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
DE: 7200 SEISMOLOGY
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting