HR: 1340h
AN: S23A-0296    [Abstracts]
TI: Comparison of Seismicity Models for Hazard Assessment in Low Seismicity Regions
AU: * Beauval, C
EM: beauval@geo.uni-potsdam.de
AF: University of Potsdam, Postfach 60 15 53, Potsdam, 14415 Germany
AU: Hainzl, S
EM: hainzl@geo.uni-potsdam.de
AF: University of Potsdam, Postfach 60 15 53, Potsdam, 14415 Germany
AU: Scherbaum, F
EM: fs@geo.uni-potsdam.de
AF: University of Potsdam, Postfach 60 15 53, Potsdam, 14415 Germany
AB: Statistical models such as ETAS (Epistemic Type Aftershock Sequence) propose to describe the occurrence of earthquakes based on two well-established laws, the Gutenberg-Richter and the Omori laws. Such a model is thus able to reproduce clustering of earthquakes, as observed in reality. If integrated in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, this model can be an alternative to the non-realistic Poisson model usually assumed. This study first aims at evaluating the ability of ETAS model to describe the behaviour of seismicity in low seismicity regions. The parameters required by the model are estimated on French and German instrumental data. To estimate the uncertainty on these parameters, due to the use of short time periods, synthetic catalogues are simulated with Monte Carlo method. In the second step, we compare the hazard estimates computed assuming that seismicity is fully described by the ETAS model, with classical probabilistic results of PSHA studies relying on the Poisson hypothesis.
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
DE: 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering
DE: 7215 Earthquake parameters
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting