HR: 0800h
AN: S51B-0146 [Abstracts]
TI: Modeling Seismically Induced Deformation And Fluid Flow In The Nankai Subduction Zone
AU: * Ge, S
EM: ges@spot.colorado.edu
AF: University of Colorado, Department of Geological Sciences, Boulder, CO 80309
United States
AU: Screaton, E J
EM: screaton@ufl.edu
AF: University of Florida, Department of Geology, Gainesville, FL 32611
United States
AB:
Fluid pressure changes induced by seismic strains in the Nankai subduction zone were investigated through numerical modeling.
Seismic strains resulting from dislocations along fault surfaces were coupled to pore pressure generation, and subsequent
transient fluid flow was simulated. This study is distinct from previous efforts that modeled homogeneous systems. Effects of
variable mechanical and hydrologic properties on the coupled hydromechanical system were investigated by assigning different
mechanical and hydrological properties to marine sediments, the decollement zone, and the upper oceanic crust. Seismicities
of varying magnitude were simulated by discrete dislocation events.
Model sensitivity studies suggest that for a reasonable range of parameter scenarios, transient pressure head signals caused
by discrete dislocations of a few meters in the updip region of the seismogenic zone can be observed over large areas of the
margin from near the seafloor to deep in the crust. Compressibility, a parameter responsible for the co-seismic response of
pore pressures to strain, was varied from 10E-11 1/Pa for the crust below the decollement to 10E-9 1/Pa for the sediments
above the decollement. Pressure head changes on the order of tens of meters were observed, while larger head anomalies exist
near the tips of the dislocated segments. The duration for the seismically induced pressure head to dissipate depends on the
hydraulic diffusivity of the system, which is a function of permeability as well as storage. Permeability in sediments wedge
was varied with depth from 10E-15 m2 near the seafloor to approximately 10E-21 m2 at 10 km below seafloor. Upper oceanic
crust below the decollement was assumed to have permeability on the order of 10E-12 m2. A scheme was adapted to allow
permeability of the decollement to increase after dislocation. Preliminary modeling results suggest that post-seismic
permeability changes involving a small region of the dislocation zone would have a limited effect on the overall picture of
the hydrologic regime. Permeability increases in larger areas of the decollement, however, would shorten the pressure
dissipation periods. Most pressure head dissipation takes place within the first tens to thousands of years following the
seismic events.
As more monitoring data become available, the coupled mechanical and hydrologic model can be further utilized to assess
hydrologic responses of the seismogenic zone processes and provide an additional means to infer large-scale mechanical and
hydrogeological parameters of the subduction zone.
DE: 3022 Marine sediments--processes and transport
DE: 3210 Modeling
DE: 1829 Groundwater hydrology
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting